关键词： 气候变暖开花

本期上发表的一篇论文报告说,气候变暖可能会造成一些常见植物的开花期显著缩短。这项研究采用基因表达分析来做这一预测,并且提出,该方法对预测气候变化所带来的人们尚未研究过的风险可能会有用。

在受控的实验条件下,Akiko Satake及同事模拟了拟南芥的关键开花时间基因的调控动态,建立了一个预测气候对这些生命周期事件的影响的方法。然后,他们将该模型应用到日本两个普通园林区的拟南芥种群,发现开花持续时间随变暖逐渐缩短。该小组进而提出,温度升高4.5-5.3°C可能会*阻止这种多年生植物开花。

由于这一模型准确重现了基因表达因气候变暖而发生的季节变化,并且预测了植物开始开花的时间以及花期的长度,因此作者提出,它有可能被用在系统性的保护规划中。他们还提出,该方法具有被延伸到用来模拟某些作物品种的基因表达和对气候变化的反应的潜力。

推荐的英文摘要

Forecasting flowering phenology under climate warming by modelling the regulatory dynamics of flowering-time genes

Akiko Satake,  Tetsuhiro Kawagoe,  Yukari Saburi,  Yukako Chiba,  Gen Sakurai  & Hiroshi Kudoh

Understanding how climate warming has an impact on the life cycle schedule of terrestrial organisms is critical to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change.Despite recent advances identifying the molecular basis of temperature responses, few studies have incorporated this knowledge into predictive models.Here we develop a method to forecast flowering phenology by modelling regulatory dynamics of key flowering-time genes in perennial life cycles.The model, parameterized by controlled laboratory experiments, accuray reproduces the seasonal changes in gene expression, the corresponding timing of floral initiation and return to vegetative growth after a period of flowering in complex natural environments.A striking scenario forecast by the model under climate warming is that the shift in the return time to vegetative growth is greater than that in floral initiation, which results in a significant reduction of the flowering period.Our study demonstrates the usefulness of gene expression assessment to predict unexplored risks of climate change.